Panic is starting to set in.
“The only thing preventing us from having a great night in November is the massive financial disparity our party currently faces,” said Jason Thielman, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “We are on a trajectory to win the majority, but unless something changes drastically in the next six weeks, we will lose winnable seats.”
In some ways it’s a familiar place for the party, which has found itself facing a version of this quandary every two years since former President Donald Trump turbocharged Democrats’ small-dollar fundraising. And Republicans are sounding the alarm now because they believe there is still time to fix it.
They know they won’t be able to match Democrats dollar-for-dollar, but they need to narrow the deficit to stay in the game.
But Democrats are reaching new heights, pounding the airwaves with multimillion-dollar ad blitzes while their GOP opponents are still scrambling for funds. In some key Senate battlegrounds, Democrats are so flush with cash that they are outspending Republicans by tens of millions on the air. That’s forced the GOP to lean heavily on super PACs, which can raise unlimited amounts of money but must pay higher rates for the same ad slots.
Time’s running out: The next few weeks of fundraising will determine whether Senate Republicans can seriously contest Democratic-held seats in places beyond the red states of Montana and Ohio — and just how much House Republicans can go on offense while still protecting the slew of incumbents they have in blue districts.
They need the funds as soon as possible to communicate during early voting and make sure Democrats aren’t totally unchallenged on the air in the final weeks.
Biden’s exit from the presidential race — and Harris’ sudden ascent has brought Democrats fresh hope about their electoral odds and spooked Republicans.
At the party’s Jackson Hole retreat in Wyoming in mid-August, several top Republican donors expressed concern about how Harris’ surge would affect House races and whether her polling bump was a honeymoon phase or here to stay, according to two people familiar with the conversations and granted anonymity to describe a private event.
But for House Republicans, the bigger concern is the cash crunch.
Dan Conston, the president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the largest House GOP super PAC, had begun to warn donors that Democrats were pushing more money toward House races.
At the retreat, Conston said he felt good about Republican prospects in key races — but that his group needed $35 million to keep Democrats in check, the people familiar with the event said.
In a call with members a few weeks ago, Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, acknowledged that the polling was shifting toward Democrats in the presidential race and generic ballot in battleground districts. But he said the head-to-head polling between named House candidates was holding steady.
The money, he said, is not.
Democrats have significantly outpaced Republicans in fundraising this year, especially in states with pricey media markets like California and New York. Money raised by Democratic challengers has been noticeably strong.
More than a half dozen vulnerable Republican members trailed their Democratic opponents in cash-on-hand at the end of June — a dangerous place for an incumbent. That includes several GOP members who hold seats that Biden won in 2020, such as Reps. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.), Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), making them uniquely vulnerable.
In Wyoming, Hudson and Conston told donors that the cash-on-hand gap between Democratic incumbents and Republican challengers in key races was $37 million.
And the gap may have grown since campaigns last reported their numbers.
Vulnerable House Democrats and the party’s challengers in key races put up another strong online fundraising month in July, according to data from ActBlue, the Democratic fundraising platform. Six battleground Democrats raised at least $500,000 on the platform last month, and nearly 20 others raised at least $250,000.
Democrats across the board got a boost in fundraising when Harris replaced Biden, and those online fundraising totals represent only part of what candidates raised, with more money coming in from large fundraising and joint fundraising committees.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, which has already laid down some $140 million in reservations, will try to help make up the difference. But that becomes harder as Democrats continue to raise $1 million or more in a three-month span. And House Majority PAC, Democrats’ counterpart, has reserved $210 million in ads.
“CLF is doing great. But they can only withstand so much disparity,” said one aide to a member of House GOP leadership, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “There’s a breaking point where they can’t make up that gap.”
The Senate is perhaps an even bleaker picture.
Democrats are outspending Republicans in six of the top eight Senate races, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact. In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and his allies have a $57 million advantage on the air over Republican Kari Lake. Sens. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and their allies both have $41 million edges over their respective Republican challengers.
Both parties are roughly spending evenly in Ohio since the March primary. And Democrats have more modest leads in Michigan and Montana.
In Pennsylvania, Republican David McCormick and his allied super PACs are outspending Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and his supporters by close to $30 million. And in the open seat in Maryland, Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan and his allies are outspending Democrat Angela Alsobrooks by nearly $9 million after the May primary.
A significant portion of those totals are for future ad reservations — so the disparity can still be closed, but only if Republicans have enough cash.
That’s part of why Daines, as NRSC chair, made a specific fundraising plug during the Republican National Convention. In his brief speech, he name-dropped all his candidates and directed viewers to a website to donate.
“Right now the left-wing billionaires are massively outspending us — that’s what’s keeping me up at night,” the Montana senator said.
Anticipating Democrats’ fundraising dominance, Daines and other national Republicans this cycle recruited wealthy candidates. Some, notably Eric Hovde in Wisconsin, have significantly self-funded their campaigns, but jarring gaps still remain.
One bright spot for Republicans: At least two groups involved in Senate races have seen an uptick in donations since Biden’s exit that put them ahead of where they were at this point in past cycles by a sizable margin, according to two people familiar with their finances.
A possible reason: Many GOP donors see investing in the Senate as one of the best ways to block Democrats from having total control in Washington in 2025. Republicans need to flip two seats to guarantee control of the Senate, and they have one near-guaranteed layup in West Virginia and two prime red-state targets in Ohio and Montana.
In contrast, the strong start to Harris’ candidacy has spurred anxiety about the GOP’s prospects in the presidential race. And in the House, Democrats need to gain just a handful of seats to retake the chamber — and among the vulnerable incumbents are 16 Republicans in Biden-won districts.
Still, party leaders in both chambers see the next several weeks as their opportunity to change the playing field. If they can amass enough cash to whittle down the gap, they feel they can still have a strong night in November.
“When Republicans have the resources to tell this story, we win,” said Jack Pandol, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “We just can’t allow a green tsunami of Democratic cash to change the conversation from the issues.”
Olivia Beavers, Jessica Piper and Nicholas Wu contributed to this report.
